Tariff uncertainty is causing a consumer conundrum. Should shoppers wait out today’s tariffs in hopes that lower prices will soon return…or stock up now to beat additional tariff-related price hikes that might be looming? Bottom Line Personal asked Yale economist Ernie Tedeschi what US consumers need to know…
What Is a Tariff?
Tariffs are taxes on imported goods. They increase the prices of those goods and often those of domestically produced products if those domestic products contain imported components. Domestic manufacturers may also opportunistically boost their prices because tariffs prevent their foreign competitors from charging less.
The Trump administration has imposed a range of steep tariffs—notable examples include a 10% universal tariff and a 145% minimum tariff rate on imports from China, though that 145% tariff has been temporarily rolled back to 30%.
Where Do Tariffs Stand Now?
In May 2025, the Court of International Trade blocked many of the new tariffs…but an appeals court quickly put that ruling on hold, allowing the tariffs to continue. The matter will inevitably end up before the Supreme Court, likely later this summer. It’s unclear how the Supreme Court will rule.
Should Consumers Make Purchases Now or Wait?
Many of the tariffs are already in effect. The current overall average tariff rate of 15.6% is the highest since 1937, and the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum affects a wide range of products.
There still might be time to find pre-tariff prices on certain products. History tells us that it can take several months for tariffs to drive up consumer prices as retailers sell off pre-tariff inventory. This delay is most likely with big-ticket items such as cars, major appliances and high-end electronics. Example: A tariff on imported washing machines that took effect in January 2018 didn’t increase consumer prices until April 2018.
Here’s what to consider when shopping for certain products…
Vehicles, appliances and electronics
Consumers who plan to buy expensive items like these should shop ASAP but cautiously, comparing prices offered on competing products from multiple retailers. At times of tariff transition like this, it wouldn’t be surprising to find wide pricing gaps. Don’t panic buy if you can’t find an appealing deal—there’s still a chance that many of the tariffs eventually will be blocked by the Supreme Court.
Semiconductors and copper
Additional tariffs on these products are expected at some point in 2025 but were not yet in place as of early June. Anyone who expects to make purchases involving these might consider doing so promptly as well.
Pharmaceuticals
A tariff on imported prescription pharmaceuticals is unlikely to have an immediate effect on most consumers. The prices people pay for prescription drugs typically are determined by the co-pays set by their insurance companies and Medicare, not directly by the price of the drugs. But insurers and Medicare might eventually increase co-pays or remove certain drugs from their formularies entirely if prices shoot up, so it is worth monitoring the co-pays imposed by your coverage for your prescription drugs in the months and years ahead. If any become prohibitively expensive, ask your doctor if there are alternatives that you could take instead.
Other product categories likely to be affected by tariffs…
Apparel: 31% near-term increase projected for shoe prices and 28% for clothing.
Produce: 6.7% projected increase. Mexico supplies one-third of the produce consumed in the US. It will be tricky to find pre-tariff pricing in these categories, which typically respond to tariffs quickly. Helpful: Consider comparing produce prices at local farmers markets and farm stands to those charged by supermarkets.
Products made in China, including toys, power tools, small appliances and household goods: It is currently impossible to say with confidence whether this is the time to stock up or postpone purchases. There’s a chance that the US and China will come to a trade agreement and the current 30% tariff rate will drop…but it’s also possible that no agreement will be reached and the 145% rate will return.
